L’Euro comme espace de conflit entre Etats
Par Alban Mathieu, le 17 mars 2019
L’économiste Alban Mathieu interviendra à 18 Heures, le mercredi 3 avril, sur le thème : « L’Euro comme espace de conflits entre États », à l’Institut des Sciences de l’Homme (ISH), salle Elise Rivet, 14 Avenue Berthelot, 69007 Lyon (dans le cadre du Groupe de recherche sur la monnaie européenne).
La problématique de l’intervention est la suivante :
« Devant les résultats économiques dramatiques des politiques économiques mises en place depuis la fondation de l’Euro, il nous semble nécessaire d’envisager la monnaie unique à travers une grille de lecture non économique. En revenant aux négociations intergouvernementales du traité de Maastricht, nous pouvons discerner les motifs qui ont poussé à l’unification monétaire européenne et comprendre ce qu’elle est : un enjeu géopolitique pour accroître la souveraineté et la sécurité des États considérés. Ainsi, la monnaie unique n’est pas advenue à la suite d’un accord qui cherchait à construire une entité politique à un niveau européen, mais a résulté d’une concordance momentanée des objectifs géopolitiques sur un même objet. Elle matérialise donc un espace de conflits entre les États européens à la fois pour en fixer les règles monétaires, mais aussi à travers la compétition économique qui en résulte. »
Le lecteur pourra trouver enpost-scriptum une description plus détaillée de l’intervention.
Venez nombreux !
Les débats sur la monnaie unique se concentrent sur les effets dramatiques de la politique monétaire de la BCE et des critères de convergence économiques. Cependant, en réinterprétant la monnaie comme un ensemble des règles d’émission, de circulation et de distribution construite, l’Euro devient un ensemble plus large qu’il s’agit de saisir. Ces caractéristiques sont les suivantes : mobilité des biens, des services, des personnes et des capitaux, les modes de financement des États, le régime de change, les objectifs et les missions de la Banque centrale, l’organisation des marchés financiers, l’existence d’un État central, l’existence de transferts fiscaux et financiers.
Nous aboutissons alors à une réinterprétation des pratiques de pouvoir des États. Les politiques budgétaires et monétaires découlent des décisions politiques prises antérieurement et impliquent la mise en place de politiques économiques spécifiques des États. D’un côté, une désinflation compétitive se développe dans laquelle la diminution des coûts de production demeure la condition sine qua nonpour gagner des parts de marchés et améliorer sa balance commerciale. D’un autre côté, les critères de convergence économiques conduisent à la mise en place de politiques procycliques. En cas de déficit public supérieur à 3% du PIB ou de dette publique supérieure à 60% du PIB, les États doivent soit réduire leurs dépenses, soit augmenter les impôts, créant les conditions pour un accroissement du déficit. L’interaction de ces deux politiques économiques produit des changements dans la distribution des revenus, une déflation au niveau européen, des divergences économiques entre États et une absence de croissance économique.
Un tel résultat économique pose problème. Des économistes de plus en plus nombreux pointent les défauts de cette zone monétaire, pourtant rien ne semble changer. Les théories économiques semblent incapables d’expliquer à la fois la création de l’Euro, mais aussi sa permanence. Revenir aux négociations intergouvernementales du Traité de Maastricht, en tant que point central et déterminant, permet de fournir des clés de compréhension. Ce moment politique, complété par la suite par d’autres traités, permet de saisir les volontés politiques des gouvernements européens, notamment français et allemand. Par ce biais, nous pouvons dépasser les questions de morales ou de bons sentiments pour revenir aux relations interétatiques basées sur des intérêts politiques et économiques au fondement de l’Union Monétaire Européenne. Les négociations intergouvernementales supposent que les gouvernements sont davantage indépendants de leurs parlements nationaux et de leurs sociétés respectives. Ainsi, en analysant les volontés de ces gouvernements nous pouvons déterminer les raisons politiques qui ont conduit à l’Euro.
Le gouvernement français cherchait à améliorer sa souveraineté vis-à-vis du pouvoir monétaire allemand au sein du SME, mais également des marchés financiers. L’objectif consistait à se défaire de la dépendance des marchés financiers et à empêcher toute hégémonie allemande sur l’Europe. L’unification monétaire européenne est devenu le moyen parfait pour réaliser cet objectif car cela permettait de gagner la crédibilité du Deutsche Mark, donc de s’assurer de davantage de marge de manœuvre face aux marchés financiers, et d’ancrer définitivement l’Allemagne au sein de l’Europe de l’Ouest. Cette conception de l’unification monétaire européenne en tant qu’outil géopolitique s’est construite à la suite d’un « basculement » de l’idéologie monétaire vers le monétarisme chez les membres de l’exécutif socialiste. Sans ce basculement, l’interprétation visant à assurer la souveraineté monétaire de l’État face aux marchés financiers et à l’Allemagne aurait été différente.
Le gouvernement allemand cherchait lui à inscrire son pays au sein de l’Europe de l’Ouest et l’intégration européenne en était l’outil privilégié. A ce titre, Helmut Kohl et Hans-Dietrich Genscher ont lié l’unification monétaire à la fois à la réunification allemande et à l’union politique. Il s’agissait de lutter contre toute résurgence du nazisme en s’associant davantage avec l’intégration européenne, de devenir pleinement indépendant, de retrouver une souveraineté à part entière dans les relations internationales et de réunifier les deux Allemagnes. Finalement, l’unification monétaire consistait à utiliser la puissance économique et monétaire allemande pour accroître son indépendance, sa souveraineté et sa sécurité.
S’il existait une volonté politique des deux exécutifs, l’unification monétaire a également abouti car ils partageaient une même vision de la monnaie. La stabilité monétaire faisait partie intégrante de l’héritage allemand en raison de la place de l’ordolibéralisme au sein de la nation allemande. La Bundesbank veillait notamment, à garder intact l’objectif de lutte contre l’inflation. Ce totem de la société allemande ne pouvait être bradé ou abandonné sous peine d’encourir un refus sur l’unification monétaire européenne de la part de la Bundesbank et de la société allemande. Toutefois, l’exécutif français, malgré quelques désaccords, acceptait les soubassements théoriques des propositions allemandes, ce qui a permis de trouver un compromis essentiel pour définir les règles monétaires que l’on connaît actuellement.
L’enjeu de l’unification monétaire européenne n’était donc pas la première étape d’une fédération européenne, mais bien un enjeu géopolitique avec des objectifs de sécurité et de souveraineté pour ces deux pays. La monnaie unique n’est pas advenue à la suite d’un accord qui cherchait à construire une entité politique à un niveau européen, mais a résulté d’une concordance momentanée des objectifs géopolitiques sur un même objet. Pour cette raison, on a abouti à une délégation de la souveraineté sur l’ensemble des caractéristiques présentées dans le premier paragraphe. Il faut alors se résoudre à considérer la monnaie unique pour ce qu’elle est : non pas un objet en faveur d’un projet européen vers une fédération, mais un lieu de conflits entre les États européens à la fois pour fixer les règles monétaires et de compétition économique quel que soient les conséquences économiques.
Pour finir, les différentes tentatives de réformes qui ont été proposées depuis la crise des dettes souveraines se heurtent à ces relations interétatiques de pouvoir. Les propositions d’Eurobonds, de monnaie fiscale complémentaire ou encore d’État fédéral, qui tentent de modifier les règles monétaires, n’adviendront pas puisqu’elles nécessitent une volonté politique de l’ensemble des États et la modification du compromis monétaire. Deux éléments que le gouvernement allemand, mais aussi français, ne sont pas prêts à accepter.
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